Category Archives: The Mannifesto

The essays that belong to the massive “Mannifesto” project.

Eye of the Storm

Bran listened. “It’s only the wind,” he said after a moment, uncertain. “The leaves are rustling.”

“Who do you think sends the wind, if not the gods?”

— BRAN VI, A GAME OF THRONES

In this quiet passage Osha introduces Bran, and the readers, to a recurring concept: the wind itself may occasionally carry supernatural importance.

Osha’s comment can certainly be dismissed as the primitive superstitions of a wildling—but as we’ve seen throughout A Song of Ice and Fire, folk myths often conceal compelling truths.

Getting to my point, I believe that Osha is largely correct in her statement:

The gods do appear to ‘send the wind’.

The reason for this claim is based on a more important observation:

Men and women can appeal to their gods for these winds.

Indeed, as I will show you there is plenty of evidence to suggest this is somehow true.

These are fun, insightful observations on their own—nice to know—but they do not inherently reveal details into the events that occur in the books. The only way to really generate exciting ideas from these findings is if we use them to explain or predict phenomenon. To that end, this essay proposes a possibly fantastical idea:

The blizzard that blankets the north was a deliberate ‘conjuration’.

It was conjured by someone allied with Stannis.

The two most likely candidates are Melisandre and/or Stannis himself.

Furthermore, I argue that such sorcery was likely a deliberate component of Stannis’s strategy, a key requirement for enacting the “Night Lamp” and subsequent plots. Even setting aside the Night Lamp theory and The Mannifesto, the ideas presented herein are thought-provoking at the very least. Continue reading

A Ghostwriter in Winterfell

THE MANNIFESTO: VOLUME V, CHAPTER II

I formerly argued that Mance Rayder was the author of the infamous Pink Letter. I no longer believe that to be true. I believe the author is someone that the ASOIAF fandom least suspects.

Theon Greyjoy is the author of the Pink Letter.

If we assume for the moment that this argument is correct, it raises several logistical questions, to which I also propose compelling answers:

Under what circumstances did Theon author the Pink Letter?

Theon authored the letter after arriving at the Dreadfort.

Theon arrived at the Dreadfort as part of Stannis’s high-level strategy… to capture the Dreadfort under a false flag and draw the Boltons from Winterfell.

Why would Theon send such a letter to Jon Snow?

The Pink Letter’s purpose: To provoke. To inform. To confuse.

In short, the letter contains secret intelligence and/or messages. Yet the letter is written in a confusing and cryptic fashion, in order to confuse any readers who are unaware of the presence of secret content.

NOTE: The nature of these cryptic messages is not currently the focus of this essay. This essay has a very specific scope: to argue that Theon is the author of the infamous Pink Letter.

Continue reading

A Confederacy of Stewards

THE MANNIFESTO: VOLUME TBD

So I’m uh … I’m frankly terrified of publishing the following essay. In a series of essays making big claims, I am about to make some of the boldest and most contentious claims yet.

Where to begin the madness in this essay?

A fair criticism of the Mannifesto is that it paints Stannis and a few others as geniuses capable of little error and grand calculation. The Baratheon war machine as described in the various essays heretofore is well-oiled, precise in its engineering. However, such precision naturally leads to a weakness: throw a well placed wrench into the works and the entire machine can crash to a irreparable halt.

All it takes is a few unpredictable events to undermine the success of Stannis’s campaign.

Stepping further in this direction, most people believe that the unexpected sabotage will come in the form of something unpredictable from Ramsay Bolton. However, I disagree:

Stannis’s campaign may have been indirectly sabotaged by Cersei Lannister.

Continue reading

A League of Their Own

THE MANNIFESTO: VOLUME I, CHAPTER VII

To be quite frank, this essay doesn’t need polished presentation, nor well-articulated reason, nor well-timed salvos of ‘mind-shattering new theory’. I simply plan to prove the following:

Stannis’s campaign in the north draws directly on elements of Napoleon Bonaparte’s most famous triumphs: at Ulm, Austerlitz, and Arcola.

Specific elements of Stannis’s northern campaign are derived from Hannibal’s famous victory at the Battle of Cannae.

Continue reading

A Nefarious Investment

THE MANNIFESTO: APPENDIX I, CHAPTER IX

NOTE: If you are desperate to see the TL;DR, scroll down… it is near the table of contents.

In our final essay regarding Tycho Nestoris, I want to discuss the nature of his urgency.

Why was Tycho willing to take such great risks to reach Stannis as fast as humanly possible?

There are several obvious financial reasons, easily understood and reconciled with textual evidence or obvious reasoning.

Yet there is one other reason, both secret and massive, for the Iron Bank’s support, a self-serving power play that the bank can deliver to Stannis on a platter.

Continue reading

The Mockingbird’s Sweet Poison

In this two-part essay series I would like to unveil two major secrets, one regarding Robert Arryn and the other Clydas, the meek ‘maester’ at Castle Black.

The revelations proposed in these essays have significant implications, suggesting sinister plots in the Vale and on the Wall. In fact, one could argue that these discoveries enable a process by which we can begin to unravel some of the central events from A Dance with Dragons.

Getting to the point, this two-part series provides evidence and reasoning to support the following arguments:

Part One:

Lysa Tully was drugging Robert Arryn for quite some time, perhaps even years.

Littlefinger abuses this knowledge to engineer Robert’s death.

Part Two (forthcoming):

Clydas is abusing the same drug.

Although seemingly of trivial importance, these observations will later be shown to have tremendous implications. Continue reading

Charity of the Iron Bank

THE MANNIFESTO: APPENDIX I, CHAPTER VII

Tycho Nestoris: Our intrepid banker from Braavos, the man who fearlessly seeks out Stannis, traversing miles of dangerous terrain in a historic blizzard.

And he does all of this in order provide loans and ensure Stannis claims the Iron Throne. The ultimate goal of Tycho’s mission? To negotiate repayment of debts owed to the Iron Bank:

Tycho Nestoris had impressed him as cultured and courteous, but the Iron Bank of Braavos had a fearsome reputation when collecting debts… …When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones.
— JON IX, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Tycho sought out Stannis as such an alternative “prince”, one more amenable to repaying the Throne’s dues after Cersei abandoned those debts.

So why is it that when Tycho finally arrives at Stannis’s camp, one of the first things he does is give gifts? Continue reading