Category Archives: The Mannifesto

The essays that belong to the massive “Mannifesto” project.

Tycho’s Gift: I Made a Video-Thing

Whenever I hang out on r/asoiaf, I tend to revisit my old ideas. Often this is because of a new theory causes me to rethink things. Or perhaps its just new people to the fandom and I’m wondering if my stuff is still relevant. Often, I wonder if my old ideas are totally nuts (many are), or if they remain as golden to me now as they did five years ago when I wrote them.

I get a lot of flack because of what seems like a total fan-boy love for Stannis. I have indeed written a lot about him. But it is less a function of love—rather it is the product of interest. I can’t help but be fascinated by the number of little, nuanced details that are happening just beyond our senses.

Because I’ve been “stuck” for months on some of my essays, I figured I would revisit some of my essays and try to give them broader appeal—those that were still viable in my opinion. I’m not a fan of putting my face on video but I feel a more ‘fireside chat’ approach might make some of these ideas more digestible.

I’ve already made several videos, but the one I want to start with addresses the journey and character of Tycho Nestoris, the Braavosi banker.

In this video I explore some of the mysteries and oddities surrounding Tycho and what they probably mean. The ultimate question that people should be wondering is this:

  • ?
  • Why does Tycho free the Ironborn?

My ‘fireside chat’ attempt to explain this (and other things) is here:

TLDR is after the break:
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Eye of the Storm

Bran listened. “It’s only the wind,” he said after a moment, uncertain. “The leaves are rustling.”

“Who do you think sends the wind, if not the gods?”

— BRAN VI, A GAME OF THRONES

In this quiet passage Osha introduces Bran, and the readers, to a recurring concept: the wind itself may occasionally carry supernatural importance.

Osha’s comment can certainly be dismissed as the primitive superstitions of a wildling—but as we’ve seen throughout A Song of Ice and Fire, folk myths often conceal compelling truths.

Getting to my point, I believe that Osha is largely correct in her statement:

The gods do appear to ‘send the wind’.

The reason for this claim is based on a more important observation:

Men and women can appeal to their gods for these winds.

Indeed, as I will show you there is plenty of evidence to suggest this is somehow true.

These are fun, insightful observations on their own—nice to know—but they do not inherently reveal details into the events that occur in the books. The only way to really generate exciting ideas from these findings is if we use them to explain or predict phenomenon. To that end, this essay proposes a possibly fantastical idea:

The blizzard that blankets the north was a deliberate ‘conjuration’.

It was conjured by someone allied with Stannis.

The two most likely candidates are Melisandre and/or Stannis himself.

Furthermore, I argue that such sorcery was likely a deliberate component of Stannis’s strategy, a key requirement for enacting the “Night Lamp” and subsequent plots. Even setting aside the Night Lamp theory and The Mannifesto, the ideas presented herein are thought-provoking at the very least. Continue reading

A Ghostwriter in Winterfell

THE MANNIFESTO: VOLUME V, CHAPTER II

I formerly argued that Mance Rayder was the author of the infamous Pink Letter. I no longer believe that to be true. I believe the author is someone that the ASOIAF fandom least suspects.

Theon Greyjoy is the author of the Pink Letter.

If we assume for the moment that this argument is correct, it raises several logistical questions, to which I also propose compelling answers:

Under what circumstances did Theon author the Pink Letter?

Theon authored the letter after arriving at the Dreadfort.

Theon arrived at the Dreadfort as part of Stannis’s high-level strategy… to capture the Dreadfort under a false flag and draw the Boltons from Winterfell.

Why would Theon send such a letter to Jon Snow?

The Pink Letter’s purpose: To provoke. To inform. To confuse.

In short, the letter contains secret intelligence and/or messages. Yet the letter is written in a confusing and cryptic fashion, in order to confuse any readers who are unaware of the presence of secret content.

NOTE: The nature of these cryptic messages is not currently the focus of this essay. This essay has a very specific scope: to argue that Theon is the author of the infamous Pink Letter.

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A Confederacy of Stewards

THE MANNIFESTO: VOLUME TBD

So I’m uh … I’m frankly terrified of publishing the following essay. In a series of essays making big claims, I am about to make some of the boldest and most contentious claims yet.

Where to begin the madness in this essay?

A fair criticism of the Mannifesto is that it paints Stannis and a few others as geniuses capable of little error and grand calculation. The Baratheon war machine as described in the various essays heretofore is well-oiled, precise in its engineering. However, such precision naturally leads to a weakness: throw a well placed wrench into the works and the entire machine can crash to a irreparable halt.

All it takes is a few unpredictable events to undermine the success of Stannis’s campaign.

Stepping further in this direction, most people believe that the unexpected sabotage will come in the form of something unpredictable from Ramsay Bolton. However, I disagree:

Stannis’s campaign may have been indirectly sabotaged by Cersei Lannister.

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A League of Their Own

THE MANNIFESTO: VOLUME I, CHAPTER VII

To be quite frank, this essay doesn’t need polished presentation, nor well-articulated reason, nor well-timed salvos of ‘mind-shattering new theory’. I simply plan to prove the following:

Stannis’s campaign in the north draws directly on elements of Napoleon Bonaparte’s most famous triumphs: at Ulm, Austerlitz, and Arcola.

Specific elements of Stannis’s northern campaign are derived from Hannibal’s famous victory at the Battle of Cannae.

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A Nefarious Investment

THE MANNIFESTO: APPENDIX I, CHAPTER IX

NOTE: If you are desperate to see the TL;DR, scroll down… it is near the table of contents.

In our final essay regarding Tycho Nestoris, I want to discuss the nature of his urgency.

Why was Tycho willing to take such great risks to reach Stannis as fast as humanly possible?

There are several obvious financial reasons, easily understood and reconciled with textual evidence or obvious reasoning.

Yet there is one other reason, both secret and massive, for the Iron Bank’s support, a self-serving power play that the bank can deliver to Stannis on a platter.

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The Mockingbird’s Sweet Poison

In this two-part essay series I would like to unveil two major secrets, one regarding Robert Arryn and the other Clydas, the meek ‘maester’ at Castle Black.

The revelations proposed in these essays have significant implications, suggesting sinister plots in the Vale and on the Wall. In fact, one could argue that these discoveries enable a process by which we can begin to unravel some of the central events from A Dance with Dragons.

Getting to the point, this two-part series provides evidence and reasoning to support the following arguments:

Part One:

Lysa Tully was drugging Robert Arryn for quite some time, perhaps even years.

Littlefinger abuses this knowledge to engineer Robert’s death.

Part Two (forthcoming):

Clydas is abusing the same drug.

Although seemingly of trivial importance, these observations will later be shown to have tremendous implications. Continue reading